Eleven days ago, the Braves had wrapped up a West Coast road trip in somewhat somber fashion: while Charlie Morton stymied the Angels en route to a 3-1 win, Austin Riley’s plunking and subsequent hand injury piled unto the Braves yet another travail in a season full of them. While the mood wasn’t exactly funereal at the time, it also wasn’t exceedingly positive, especially with a series against the Phillies looming immediately ahead.
Well, this is still baseball we’re talking about, so those past 11 days have been pretty profitable for the Atlanta Twenty-Six (or Forty?). The Braves have gone 8-2 in that span, gaining three games on the Phillies (including a game by winning the series against them last week), and outplaying literally every other NL team. (Only the Tigers match the Braves’ 8-2 record over each team’s last ten games.) The Braves have now won five straight series, and while their divisional odds are still fairly low because there just isn’t that much calendar left, their playoff odds have shot up by 10 percent in those eleven days, and by 30 percent over the last three weeks or so.
So, with a three-game cushion over the Mets for the final NL playoff spot, but a five-game deficit in the division, the Braves are in moonshot territory. They could chase down the Phillies, but to do so, they’ll need to keep rolling, and the Phillies will need to keep floundering. Over each team’s respective last 30 games, the Braves have gained four games in the division standings, but just replicating that won’t be enough. In other words, it won’t be sufficient for the Braves to be good while the Phillies are mediocre, not if they want to win the division. Hence, it’s a moonshot. But, the Braves do have this upcoming four-game set in which they can make some noise... and the soundstage for the loudest possible statement could very well be the game that opens the series, because it’s the least favorable pitching matchup, on paper, that the Braves will have to contend with.
In one corner, you have Charlie Morton, the 40-year-old in the midst of a more-than-inconsistent season. Morton has a 101/114/97 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) so far through 131 2⁄3 innings, good for just 0.8 fWAR, which is a fairly disappointing place to be, considering that his prior post-career Renaissance low in a full season was 1.5 fWAR back in 2022. Morton hasn’t had an FIP- as high as 114 since 2010 (!!). On the other hand, though, he’s finally on a good run that’s lasted more than a handful of starts: his 63/87/78 line is by far his best three-start stretch of the season; up to now, all of his starts but one with an xFIP- of 78 or lower were sandwiched between bad outings with an xFIP- above (and often well above) 100. Morton hasn’t actually walked more than two guys in a start since late June, but what’s helped him immensely has been (obviously) keeping the ball in the park, but (also very importantly), lifting his strikeout numbers. In a six-start stretch between July 4 and August 8, Morton had a 25/7 K/BB ratio, with 11 homers allowed. In his last three starts, he has a 21/5 K/BB ratio, with two homers allowed.
Morton hasn’t yet faced the Phillies this season, but they’re not exactly unfamiliar with him. He had two good outings against them last year (a 2-1 loss and then what ended up being a 10-8 win), and also faced them an absurd six times in 2022, which was much more of a mixed bag, including a disastrous Game 4 start that ended the Braves’ season.
In the other corner, the Braves will have to contend with Cristopher Sanchez for the second time in a week; Sanchez hasn’t made a start since dominating the Braves last Thursday, but taking the loss anyway despite an 8/1 K/BB ratio. On the season, Sanchez has an 84/68/79 line, and his 4.1 fWAR is third in MLB behind Chris Sale (5.6) and Tarik Skubal (4.8), just slightly ahead of teammate Zack Wheeler (4.0). (The Phillies have four starters in MLB’s top 30 by fWAR, yeesh.) As noted last week, really the only thing the Braves can hang their potential hats on, beyond scrapping out another win like they did last week (which will require Morton to keep rolling), is that Sanchez has been a bit more prone to blow-ups over the last eight weeks than he was earlier: he had four games with an xFIP- above 110 in 16 tries through June, and has had three in his past nine starts... though even this is a bit of a stretch given that he has a 124/79/72 line over his last five tries.
Basically, the Braves are in for tough sledding, but the series gets a bit easier (still not easy at all, these are literally, collectively, the toughest matchups the Braves have had all season). If they can pull off a win tonight, the moonshot towards a seventh straight division crown gets more feasible.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Thursday, August 29, 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network (out of market only)
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Online / Ch. 89
