If you had told any Atlanta Braves fan that they would lose two of their top players in Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider—two of baseball's top 100 overall players—and then deal with lengthy injuries to other star players throughout the season, it's doubtful many would have given them much of a chance of making the playoffs. Yet, with 32 games remaining in the 2024 season, the Braves are 70-60, currently holding the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
Losing Acuña and Strider is one thing, but the Braves have also had to endure long stints on the injured list for Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy, Max Fried, Reynaldo López, and, more recently, reliever A.J. Minter (out for the season), Jorge Soler (a trade deadline pickup who just returned), Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley. As talented as this Braves team is, there aren't many teams throughout the league, if any at all, that could sustain this kind of talent loss and still have any hope of making the postseason. But here’s how they’ve stayed alive to this point.
The National League has been down most of the season
No doubt there’s been a bit of luck on the Braves' side as they’ve skidded across this long and daunting season, which still has a little over a month to go. For one, early in the season, the National League was down, with most teams barely over .500 or under it completely. In their first month of play, the Braves were one of the best teams in the league, going 19-9.
That strong start has definitely helped make up for a lot of ground because since May, they’ve had two months where they fell under .500. In May, they finished 13-14; in July, they went 12-13. However, since the All-Star Break, their 17-18 record is better than their NL East-leading foes, the Philadelphia Phillies, who have gone 14-20 during that stretch. In doing so, Atlanta has kept themselves just six games back in the division. They were as far back as 10 games on July 5.
The problem for the Braves is that they have lost the No. 1 Wild Card spot they had secured for most of the season. The surging Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have been on a tear since the All-Star Break and now best the Braves for the top two spots. The Braves are also having to hold off the New York Mets, who are just 2.5 games behind them at the moment.
Recent pickups have paid off
When fans look at the Braves’ lineup now, they may be reciting one of their favorite lines from Major League: “Who are these f***ing guys?” Most of the Opening Day starters are absent, with just Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Orlando Arcia, Jarred Kelenic, and Sean Murphy left remaining.
To patch this roster back together, Alex Anthopoulos has had to skim the deepest parts of the unwanted section of veterans left behind by teams. Guys like Ramón Laureano, Whit Merrifield, and Gio Urshela are now donning a Braves uniform after receiving pink slips from other teams. Yet, all three have been pivotal in keeping this season’s playoff hopes alive.
After starting the month of August 2-8, the Braves have since gone 10-4, and each of those guys, either defensively or offensively, has paid off so far.
“It’s been incredible,” catcher Travis d’Arnaud said, per The Athletic. “For them to do what they’re doing and fill the holes that we’ve had, and to come in and fit right in, especially in the clubhouse, is the biggest thing. They’ve all been great.”
Laureano, who was one of the initial fill-ins for Acuña, is hitting .339 with seven homers and 13 RBIs in 39 games, with an OPS of .894. Merrifield, in 24 games, has hit .278 with three doubles, two triples, and a homer, with an OPS of .819 and five stolen bases. And even in just his five games, Urshela is hitting .333 in his 19 plate appearances with two doubles.
Braves are being led by dominant pitching
When the Braves brought in Chris Sale from the Boston Red Sox, they hoped he could return to at least a semblance of his former self. Little did they know they were getting Cy Young-caliber Chris Sale. The 35-year-old is 14-3 with ERA of 2.62 (second in the majors). He's third in strikeouts (191) and 12th in walks (33) and hits (117). His strikeout percentage leads the MLB (32.7%).
But he’s not the only surprise in the Braves’ pitching rotation this season. The pickup of Reynaldo López, who had been going back and forth between being a starter and a bullpen guy, resulted in one of the lowest ERAs in baseball for months. He’s currently 7-4 with a 2.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.18.
In addition to veterans Charlie Morton and Max Fried—who is probably in his last season in Atlanta—the Braves seem to have finally found the fill-in for Strider in rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. In 14 starts, the 24-year-old has gone 5-6 with a 3.94 ERA and a WHIP of 1.03. He’s fanned 94 batters and walked 15.
Overall, the Braves have the ninth-best starting rotation ERA in the league (3.89). They’re fourth in quality starts (57), second in FIP (3.55), have the best K/9 in the league (9.58), and have the most strikeouts (763).
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Is this sustainable?
A lot can happen in a week in baseball. The Braves are a clear example of that. Picking up four series wins as of late was massive, especially against the Phillies and Nationals, who they’ve struggled with all season. But there’s a mix of competition ahead in the final month that could either prove favorable or detrimental.
The Braves have the Twins, Phillies, Rockies, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, and Royals to close the season. Half of those teams are above .500 (Twins, Phillies, Dodgers, Mets and Royals), with two division leaders (Phillies and Dodgers). The toughest challenges will likely be going to Philadelphia and then hosting the Dodgers. There will be two tough series to end the season against the Mets and Royals. The Mets series could very well determine the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
As of now, the Braves have a 77.7% chance of making the playoffs. This is still one of the better teams in the National League, and they look primed to make the postseason once again.
*All stats provided by Fan Graphs
